I've played Wordle over 500 times. To win a daily game, the player must identify an unknown five-letter word in 6 or fewer guesses. After each guess, Wordle uses color to reveal which if any letters of a guess are present in the solution correctly positioned (green), present but not is the correct position (yellow) and which are not in the solution at all (black).
I keep detailed records of my wins (currently 500/507 games or 98.6%), the number of guesses made for each game (1-6 to solve and 7 if unsolved after 6 tries) and the results of direct competition with the NYT Wordle Bot (W 69, L 83 T 102 since beginning to compare).
Over time, I've developed an elaborate system of play that has resulted in significant improvement in my performance. I always begin with STARE, a good starting word but not among the highest rated according to the Bot which gives it a 95 skill rating out of 99. The Bot always starts with LEAST, a 99 skill rated word. I chose STARE because the highest number of possible words start with S, a large number end in E and A, R and T are very common letters, as well. Over all 507 games, I've failed to solve 7 times; but, my current streak of solving the game in 6 or less is 261 straight.
The Bot works from a dictionary of over 3,000 five-letter words. After each unsuccessful guess, the Bot culls all the words that are no longer possible in light of the information gained from a wrong guess. It divides the remaining possible words into groups based on shared patterns of letters. According to the Bot, "On average, more and smaller groups mean faster solving." It then uses an algorithm to select the next guess based on its estimate of statistical probability and how many possible words it expects to eliminate.
In my head to head experience (254 games), the Bot solved Wordle in an average of 3.56 guesses. My head to head average over those games is 3.66. On average, the Bot requires 10 less guesses than me every 100 games (366 to 356).
My method also involves starting with a dictionary of possible five-letter answers. The Bot's analysis of each game includes a listing of every word it considered after the first guess. Checking these lists for words I didn't have on my lists has been very helpful in expanding my dictionary. I've broken my dictionary down into a set of alphabetized lists based on what I learn from my first guess, STARE. For example, I have a list of words that have no letters in common with STARE (e.g., BLOCK). When I find after my first guess the solution has no letter in common with STARE, I choose a word from the "No letters in common with STARE" list for my second guess. With each wrong guess, just as the Bot does, I use the information gained to eliminate more words from the list, reducing the number of possible solutions. Other lists contains all words ending in E, all words with A in position 3 that don't contain STRE and so on. Currently, I have 12 mutually exclusive lists.
My method is an informal version of the Bot's algorithm. The Bot has a major advantage in that its list is more comprehensive. My lists don't always contain the solution because I've failed to include all possible 5 letter English words. When that's the case, I eliminate all the words on my list without solving the game. I then have to figure out what other word or words are possible solutions. In a recent example, the scenario emerging after 4 guesses was
_ U _ I _ D.
The solution, HUMID, wasn't in my dictionary, resulting in me losing to the Bot 5 guesses to 3. However, the most common outcome in the competition (22%) is a 3 to 3 tie. Second most common (16%) is me winning 3 guesses to 4 followed by me losing 4 to 3 (15%) and a 4-4 tie (14%). Additionally, twice the Bot has failed in our 254 mutual games to find the correct word with 6 guesses. During this stretch, I've solved it each time in 6 or less.
I do have one big advantage over the Bot. Wordle never uses the same solution twice. To account for this, I keep an alphabetized note with every past Wordle solution. (currently 715 words). Each day, I delete the solution from my lists and add it to the eliminated words list. Thus, I never guess a previous solution word. Every word I guess might be the solution. The Bot, however, doesn't take past solutions into account and frequently makes guesses I've eliminated that can't possibly be correct. I've had games where I "beat the Bot" because it made several guesses I'd already eliminated.
I have a second, perhaps smaller, advantage. The Bot can't make a subjective judgment as to which of several possible solutions is more likely. The solution to today's Wordle was HATER. After one guess, I knew the solution contained TARE but not S. My second guess was LATER, then WATER followed by RATER. In the Bot's analysis of my game, it suggested a better guess for turns 3 and 4 was EATER. My subjective judgment was that EATER was less likely than the other two I guessed. When was the last time you used or encountered the word "eater" in a sentence? Maybe "meat eater?" I solved the game on my fifth guess. The Bot solved it in 6 after guessing TATER and EATER and a previous solution, CATER.
A few games back, guessing STARE resulted in R being eliminated, A being in the correct position (3) and STE being present but out of position. This left only 3 possible answers, BEAST, LEAST and YEAST. FEAST was ruled out as a previous solution.
I immediately guessed LEAST in case the Bot solved the game on the first guess. It was wrong so I guessed BEAST next which was correct. The Bot, however guessed BEAST second, defeating me 2 guesses to 3, despite it not having ruled out FEAST. That was OK with me since 3 guesses lowers my average number slightly. The next time this scenario comes up. I'll guess LEAST followed if necessary by YEAST while I expect the Bot to go with BEAST again if LEAST isn't the solution, even after I've eliminates it as a possible solution.
As time goes by and my dictionary gets smaller, I expect my advantage to allow me to beat the Bot more often and close the gap between our average number of guesses. Even now, my average result is only 0.1 guess more and I tie or beat the Bot two thirds of the time. Stay tuned.
