Summary to date of my COVID-19 modeling study (Facebook comment)

I'm conducting a small study of how well the highly regarded MIT-Sloan model predicts COVID-19 deaths in 3 states, Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana. As you are aware, some people on the right argue that the prominent epidemiological models are not trustworthy because they greatly exaggerated the threat from the pandemic. This false argument is based on the fact that under the worst case scenario (that is, if no steps were taken nationally to flatten the curve), the models predictions were in the range of 200,000 plus deaths by this August.

As of me writing this comment, the predictions of all the prominent models have been adjusted down precisely because most states implemented shelter at home orders and the rest implemented at least some restrictions on their citizens. People who wish to discount the threat of COVID-19 conveniently ignore the fact that the models are adjusted continuously as things evolve, in particular depending on what steps are in place to contain the spread of infections. So, on April 16 I recorded the MIT-Sloan projections for the total number of deaths each state would have on May 1. They were: Georgia (913), Florida (1271), Louisiana (2281). Today (April 30), the official total deaths for each state (which are almost certainly undercounts according to the experts) are Georgia (1107), Florida (1268), Louisiana (1862).

Georgia has already exceeded the prediction by 21.2%. Florida is up to 99.7% of the predicted deaths on May 1 with 2 days left. Louisiana deaths are currently 81.6% of the MIT-Sloan prediction for May 1. Florida, which is taking steps to suppress the official tally of deaths from COVID-19 (see article below), will surpass the prediction by May 1. Only Louisiana will have fewer total deaths by May 1 than the model predicted 2 weeks ago. Why? Because Louisiana has implemented the strictest restrictions and is keeping most of them in place. Georgia and Florida have relaxed their restrictions and consequently more people are dying there. If you look at the current MIT-Sloan predictions for these 3 states moving forward to August, you'll see they have been adjusted up for Georgia and Florida and down for Louisiana.

I conclude here than this model did not exaggerate its predictions for these 3 states. It underestimated deaths in Georgia and Florida. The moral? Be like Louisiana. Don't be like Georgia and Florida.

Lockdown update

I ended up canceling the All Original Music livestream I planned for yesterday evening at 7pm local time after announcing it on Facebook and Instagram. I had developed a long, 25-song set list covering most of my songwriting career from the 1970s through the present. It's an ambitious plan and one I feel good about.

I had started rehearsing the songs after lunch, not giving myself enough time to be well prepared. However, I was pleased with how I performed running through the first 11 songs using my Gibson acoustic and blue Mexican Fender Stratocaster guitars. I planned to switch to my Fender twin humbucker Strat tuned to open G for Mystr Treefrog Road Trip and Time to go home. Things bogged down at that point, first because I needed to put a shoulder strap on the Strat. This didn't go smoothly due to the rigidity of the leather preventing the metal knob on the guitar from being inserted through the holes on the only good strap I could find. I finally solved that problem but I was beginning to get tired and edgy. I've had fairly low and inconsistent energy levels during the time we've been cooperating with the Governor's shelter at home order. Then, when I tried the two songs, I wasn't happy with the guitar tone, especially on Time to go home and my playing was sloppy on both. At that point, about 5pm, a thunderstorm commenced meaning the show would have to be moved indoors. I decided right then to call the livestream show off.

Canceling was a good decision as there was no way I would be ready and the storm intensified progressively producing a torrent of rain. Cody and Maureen have plans to visit their friends Chip and Megan tonight so doing it today wasn't an option. In any case, I need to practice the second half of the set list and get comfortable with doing the entire thing in a simulated concert. My intention is to work on that while Maureen and Cody are in Dallas. Help me, O Muse, get my act together on this!

Predicted death counts (2nd update)

I previously updated a previous post on April 16 in which I recorded projections from the MIT-Sloan model that on May 1, the number of deaths in 3 southern states would be as follows: Georgia (913), Florida (1271), Louisiana (2281). On April 22, the numbers were Georgia (986/+73), Florida (1336/+65), Louisiana (1811/-470). Today, the MIT-Sloan projections are Georgia (1066/+80), Florida (1312/+41), Louisiana (1816/+5). Total change from April 16 projections are Georgia (+153), Florida (+41), Louisiana (-465).

The current (April 23 was 62,821) prediction for total US deaths by May 1 is 63,156 (335).

Still dreaming

I woke up at 330am on Sunday morning and felt alert; so, I got up and ate a bowl of raisin bran. I read some articles and then went back to bed where I slept until 830am. I recalled a dream from the second sleep period. I was trying to organize and hold a group therapy session at what appeared to be a strip mall. It seems "we" had given up our office space so I was trying to set up for the group outside on the sidewalks. About 15 people showed up and the initial space was cramped. I decided to break the people into two groups and work with the second set later. To start with the smaller group, I asked if anyone had tested positive for COVID-19. Two men sitting together on my left said yes. "How long ago were you tested?" I asked, trying to determine if they would put the other group members in danger The answers suggested it had been several weeks earlier but I wasn't quite sure so I asked them again. That was where the dream ended.

 Now, it's 2am on Monday. My watch says I went to sleep at 1004pm which seems right. I work up maybe 45 minutes ago and started thinking about an Instagram post I sent to TDW, wondering if she found it stressful rather than inspiring. As sometimes happens, I'm afraid to find out so I haven't looked at Instagram. Usually I'm very good at matching posts I find to friends of mine who will appreciate them.

My ongoing searching and fearless moral inventory. One line of thought I went through had to do with my need to know something I did had a positive impact on someone I care about so that they love and admire me above others. It's my way to feel special and that I'm using my life to do good instead of being selfish at the expense of others. I'm scrupulous about not thinking this makes me essentially better than others but considering I just understand better how to live wisely and compassionately. Hopefully, all of this will stave off God's wrath on me, which my intellectual self doesn't believe is likely unless God turns out to be like an angry, judgmental human being lacking the kind of thoughtful caring that I practice.

The State of Louisiana is going to start allowing elective surgeries starting today (Monday, April 27). My next (and hopefully last) retina surgery has been on hold due to the COVID-19 lockdown. I'm going to call and see if I can confer with Dr. Fivgas on my status. I'd like to get it done while I'm staying at home practicing social distancing during the recovery period. I've gotten by on one eye for over a year now and I would like to get the treatment process on my left eye moving toward a conclusion, one way or the other. I'm also thinking about doing one more livestream concert before Cody, Maureen, and Regina return to Dallas on Thursday. The idea occurred to me of performing The gods in the basement, one of my earliest compositions and one I don't remember doing for an audience to date. That ran through my mind, too, before I got up to eat raisin bran and finish this blog post.

In a previous post on April 16, I recorded projections from the MIT-Sloan model that on May 1, the number of deaths in 3 southern states would be as follows: Georgia (913), Florida (1271), Louisiana (2281). Today (April 22) the numbers are now Georgia (986/+73), Florida (1312/+41), Louisiana (1811/-470).

The current (April 23) prediction for total US deaths by May 1 is 62,820.

Irregular updates

I had a dream the morning of April 10 I was with Laura M in a town in South Carolina in a car I was driving. The town seemed familiar like I had visited it before. We wanted to drive back to Athens but weren't sure which highway to take. There were several options with numbered road signs but no indication of where they led. We finally picked one but after a short stretch decided to stop and consult a map from the glove compartment. We looked at the map trying to decide where we were because we didn't seem to know the name of the town! While doing that we were kidding around in a friendly and affectionate manner, a lot like in waking life. 

I haven't written much since the COVID-19 pandemic hit Louisiana shortly after Mardi Gras. It has occurred to me I should copy more of my Facebook posts and comments into this blog- I post quite a bit every day and often that's where my creativity, insight, and humor is channeled. Someone researching my life would find out a whole lot about me from Facebook and Instagram including where I've traveled and what I do almost every day.

The moving target of COVID-19 projections

The MIT Sloan COVID-19 analytics project is another widely cited model. It predicts today (April 16) that on May 1, the number of deaths in 3 southern states with be as follows: Georgia (913), Florida (1271), Louisiana (2281). I will check on May 1 to see how accurate the prediction was.