More dreams

 I awoke from the first dream around 7am. The setting was a Congressional hearing. A typical older white male Republican  Congressman was pushing conspiracy theories about liberal "spies" to a large audience. My role in the hearing was not clear but I was addressing questions and comments to the Congressman.  "You could be right," I said. "I mean, it's possible I'm a spy, even though people here have known me since I was in kindergarten. Then, again, you could be spy- a Republican Congressman would be a perfect cover." I felt that I had demolished his allegations by demonstrating that anyone can accuse anyone else of anything without evidence but that didn't prove the allegation.

I went back to sleep and awoke after another dream that was more elaborate. What I can now remembrert is I was in Athens several streets down the hill from my parents house trying to figure out how to get back there through unexpected obstacles. It should have been simple but when I tried walking up the block I encountered a recreational lake that prevented me from crossing without possibly going through water that would get my clothes wet. I watched some young people playing in the water. I tried circling around and ended up in a building that seemed to be a department store. I was completely confusing but I somehow  activated an invisible control that caused the scene to close like the end of a video game, leaving me in front of the house. Strange. 

Note to Vince Grashaw

Hi, Vince,

I was just thinking about you when I saw your post about helping keep La Poubelle from going under. I'm happy to be in a position to help. You may recall that besides my day job as a psychologist (now retired) I write and perform music. I was going through my recording archives and it occurred to me some of the instrumental music I've written might be suitable for film background/mood usage. Could I send you links to a few examples to see what you think? My feelings won't be hurt if you aren't interested. Alternatively, if you like my work, you can use my music cheap or free- for me, it's not about making money. It's about creative satisfaction. In any case, best wishes of the season and henceforth!

Regards,

Owen

Getting started on my "Wings of the Muse" project

I had a couple of odd dreams this morning after I went back to sleep. One was a variation of the recurring series where I'm trying to look after an elderly parent or grandparent; except, this time the elderly loved one was Mistah Boux, the sweet cat we had for many years. In real life, we finally had to put him down when his health had utterly failed at an advanced age. That was about 8 years ago. Jenny and I loved Boux very much and it was difficult to make the decision to euthanize him. In the dream, he had a litter box in the big recreational room in the basement of my parents' house that had been neglected. The litter and clumps of cat poop were scattered around the floor. I was there with my sister, Scottie, trying to understand what had happened. My thought was to clean up the area and see if Boux was being fed. I went back to skeep again and in the second dream, I was speaking to a construction foreman who was doing renovations on the same house. I told him I didn't have building and renovation skills but several of my friends were very capable. I instructed him to inform me before any work was started so I would be aware of it. It seems I was concerned that someone else would give him instructions without my knowledge. In a feature that paralleled the other dream, little tacks of some kind attached to thin metal spirals were scattered on the floor so I had to be careful where I stepped. I don't know the function of these odd items.

Later, I spent the afternoon working on my demo of "We are the ones," one of the original songs I'm going to send to Sam, the drummer I've recruited to play on my demos. I hope I can get some momentum going to shake me out of the doldrums.

Our times

We're living in an era where almost everyone adheres to one or another set of simplistic beliefs that don't hold up under close scrutiny. It's called "human history."

Tell me I'm wrong here:

Standard definition of socialist: Person who endorses any of various theories or systems of social organization in which the means of producing and distributing goods is owned collectively or by a centralized government that often plans and controls the economy. (Source) 

Republican definition of socialist: Person who believes government can play a constructive role, no matter how limited, intervening in problems of the American free enterprise based society (except for when government intervenes in ways where I stand to make money or not lose money, in which case it isn't socialism and you're not a socialist if you vote for that).

Sam Robique recruitment letter

Hi, Sam, 

I was glad to hear from Holly that you three are all well and especially that her work doesn't require her to have high risk contact with COVID patients. I didn't mention this to Holly but our youngest daughter, Maureen, who recently moved with her husband, Cody, back to Baton Rouge from Dallas, is expecting their first child and our first grandchild in the next few weeks! They decided not to determine the baby's gender in advance, so we're waiting anxiously to find out. 

As I'm sure you've discovered, having children with a partner you love is the best thing there is (with music being a close second). Mary Lou and I have been living in our own bubble (which includes Maureen and Cody) being as careful as possible to avoid contracting the virus. Since I retired from practice a year ago and am an introvert, it hasn't been difficult for me to avoid social contact. Mary Lou, who has some medical risk factors, has been teaching via Zoom and minimizing other professional work involving close contact. My other two girls who live elsewhere are also ultra-careful and it looks likely we'll all make it through to when vaccines are available to us without anyone becoming a statistic. 

Speaking of music, Holly probably told you I had been thinking about checking with you to see if you'd be interested in a gig as a remote session drummer on the demos of my original songs. I've written and recorded quite a few of them over the years. I think I write pretty fair songs but most of the demos are rough and in need of time and attention to bring them up to a satisfactory state of completion. I've decided to make this a priority project for 2021. I'm not just flattering you when I say of all the drummers I've ever had the privilege of playing with, you're one of my two favorites. The other one is a guy back in Georgia named Calvin "Cal" Hale whom I've known forever and who had a distinguished performing and recording career prior to retiring a few years ago due to back problems. Cal was the drummer on my first studio session (at John Keane Studios in Athens) which produced such classics as "Murder USA" and "Don't mess with Jesus." I'll just add that in my little world, to be put in the same category with Cal is a big compliment. Aside from musical accomplishment, you're both first class human beings, too. 

Briefly, the idea I have is to hire you at whatever fee you feel is fair (e.g., hourly based on time you put in) to create drum tracks for demos I send you. We could decide jointly which tracks you want to work on based on your listening to them first. You would then create your parts, record them as wav files, and send them to me electronically (along with the bill) so I can import them into my recording software. I would, of course, pay you immediately upon receiving each track. 

Because I don't play drums, almost all of my demos utilize drum loops. On some it's the same loop all the way through while on others I use multiple loops that I may edit to a degree; but, the overall effect is on the whole fairly boring for any reasonably sophisticated listener who enjoys percussion. On the positive side, the loops do stay on the beat nicely. But I would much rather have an imperfect human than a perfect mechanical percussionist. Besides, I've been at this a long time and it's easy for me to drag stray notes around to line them up with the tempo. Believe me, I do this extensively on the guitar and bass parts I record which is a lot more efficient than playing the parts over and over again trying to get them to stay within the lines. Bottom line, if you decide to give this a try, I wouldn't want you to agonize over getting your parts perfectly on tempo- I will be happy to clean them up as necessary. I would send you my rough demos with and without percussion so you can hear what I've got but record while listening without the distraction of the original drum track(s). I anticipate accepting your tracks without questioning what you did unless you want me to give you my input on different ideas you may have. 

I'm guessing that your live musical opportunities, like mine, have been curtailed pretty drastically due to the need to stay well during the horrific pandemic we're going through. In any case, I think you would enjoy contributing to my creative musical efforts. I know your contributions would make a difference in upgrading my demos. If you're interested, we can discuss the project further via tele technology. I believe that covers it- let me know what you think! No big rush to get started on the project if you are interested but have other things that need to come first. 

Regards, 

Owen

"Happiness won't save you"

Happiness won't save you is an essay by Jennifer Senior in the New York Times (Nov 24, 2020). (A better title would be "Chasing happiness is a scam.") I listened to the audio version just now. It tells the story of Philip Brickman, a star in the world of academic social psychology who was "an expert in the psychology of happiness" and who committed suicide by jumping off a 28 story building on the University of Michigan campus on May 13, 1982 at age 38. It's a fine essay that was impressively researched.  Having dealt with suicide professionally for 40 years and nearly jumped off a bridge once myself, most directly due to a severe rebound effect from abruptly stopping the antidepressant Serzone, my strongest impression from the article is that Brickman was obsessed with feelings of inadequacy. He was disappointed that success didn't alleviate those feelings and was experiencing the stress of marital discord, negative feedback from colleagues about his performance as director of a prestigious social psychology institute at UM, and a big grant proposal being rejected.  He was in therapy and had recently undergone brief inpatient hospitalization and consultation with an outpatient psychiatrist. 

Could he have resolved his unhappiness with himself and gone on to live out his natural life? Of course, he didn't and as I've written "the road only passes one way." But people can do it. I've done it, although I believe I have more "ego strength" than Brickman did. I believe the way out of Brickman's dilemma (no matter how much one achieves, it's not enough) is to develop healthy humility, to realize that none of us are "good enough" and that neither money, social success, the approval of others, or any other experience has the power to "make you happy." By letting go of these ideas, via conscious intention (and at bottom, letting go of attachment to my idea of "me" as a being who needs to prove my value, my specialness) it is possible to achieve acceptance of self as a fabulous but limited, transient bio-psycho-social system whose social identity is in essence a fictitious character co-created by the individual and society. That is to say, I, like all people, am just like everyone else while being totally unique. I used to tell my therapy patients, "Whatever I can do, someone else can do it better except for one thing:  No one else can be me better than me." 

I would argue that objective acceptance is the closest thing we have to a lasting happiness. Otherwise, we have transient happy feelings from time to time. We do need those feelings to cope day to day and how we get them is a big determinant of whether we are miserable or reasonably content. A third factor is the degree to which the balance of our close relationships are supportive or invalidating, caring or abusive.  If I'm in an abusive personal or cultural situation, it's much harder to feel OK, even if I've achieved a high degree of acceptance. Finally, ones capacity for intimacy is critical to having a sense of well-being. Intimacy requires being vulnerable with another person who accepts me just as I am and who can be vulnerable with me in the same way. Unfortunately, relatively few people understand how this works. Most of us are in a continuous self-protective mode that keeps us "safe" from being humiliated but prevents us from feeling close.

Reply to Larry

Thank you for writing, Larry. The holidays get us reflecting on family, don't they? I miss my kind parents and my home that is only a memory. 

I never thought about having children until I finished graduate school, got married and had a job working at an old state mental hospital. I had kind of reinvented myself as a member of society living in a new place. I remember deciding that having a child would, as you indicated, allow me to experience that big dimension of human life. It's an ongoing adventure I can't do justice to in a few words but it's been good. I've led a charmed life so far!

However, I don't think having children is necessary to experiencing life deeply. Your letter says otherwise to me. Interestingly, out of my three daughters, two nieces, and a nephew, only the youngest one (my daughter, Maureen who is expecting in December) is a prospective parent. The oldest of mine says she's too self-centered and the middle one has said she wants to but her long-term boyfriend is unwilling to make a commitment. He's a very good person with kind and loving parents who would be a great father but he suffers from anxiety and depression. I've had my share of those things, too, and somehow muddled through, I don't know how, one day at a time as they say in AA.

Larry Johnson's PM

Best wishes to you and your family at this time of Thanksgiving.

I remember you wrote me that (paraphrasing) being a parent was an adventure. I cannot begin to phantom the  complex essence of raising a family. 

A friend Danny has, like me, never had children. Soon after his beloved father's death, Danny was talking about family life. Danny expressed a thought that had also crossed my mind. Danny and me both felt that by not raising children we were never going to learn the deepest lessons  that life has to offer. We wondered if we were unable to truly feel and understand the most needed and effective outlook this old world needs.

Do you have any reports or essays online that stem from your hearth-centered (and heart centered) experiences. 

I was blessed to be brought up by my loving father and mother. But not being a  learned parent makes me wonder if I am forever off track and diverted by shallow thinking and attitude.

What might balladeer and devoted family man Jim Croce have had to say about all this? He reminds me to say to you, "Thank you for your time." 

Conversations with Mom

Dream thus morning.  I was sitting on the floor in my old downstairs room, the blue one I had before Anne moved out, that later became my Dad's office, at my parents house in Athens looking through blue notebooks full of papers of some kind. There were numerous notebooks of this kind, apparently mine, stored against the closet wall. I was distracted by big clods of dirt on the floor. I started to pick some of them up to throw them outside through the back hallway door but they disintegrated in my hands. I went upstairs and saw my mother was sweeping the floor with a broom and dust pan. I told her she was getting too old to do heavy work and I would get some people to help clean up. Then I told her she had been a really good mother. She looked at me quizically and said "Didn't you already tell me that?"  "Yes I said but it doesn't hurt to tell you again. I think about you every day (which  is true in real life)." Then she started telling me about a letter she'd gotten from someone, perhaps a female cousin of mine, thanking her for helping them understand something about car insurance. Her statement didn't make sense. My impression is she was disoriented and trying to carry out her usual household routine. This made me concerned about her well being and what was going to happen to her.

As the reader knows, I've had variations on this dream regularly over the years since Mom died, perhaps earlier. Sometimes my Dad and Grandpapa are the feeble elderly parent figure although my mother is the most frequent character in that role.

Human progress

Our progress is in technology, not in wisdom.

If history has taught us one thing

...it's that people don't learn much from history.

Dream worlds and fantasy worlds

As the grand farce of the Presidential election continues to play out on the stage of life with Trump pretending he actually won and refusing to concede while blocking the Biden organization from their lawful right to a transition process,  my own dream world is the scene of ongoing drama. I slept hard last night without needing to get up midway through. In the morning, I experienced another thematically familiar dream. I was putting on a concert with a band for some kind of event taking place in an auditorium I now recognize as reminiscent of Mell Auditorium at Athens High School. My countercultural friends and I used to assemble on the steps by the auditorium each morning before the bell rang for home room when I was a senior. In the dream, I had a set list planned to fit in as part of a formal program of some sort, perhaps a holiday show. My recollection is jumbled but I remember arguing with an authority about having my own person run the sound for our performance. The guy I wanted to use was there as I made the case that he was experienced with major bands (although when I mentioned this point, he came up with two instances with bands i'd never heard of. At another point, I was at my parents' house getting ready to leave for the concert. I was fumbling with sheets of notebook papers with incomplete lists of songs, realizing we really weren't adequately prepared to do a set. Then, I tried to drive a Volvo sedan that apparently was mine ( I did own a 940 Turbo back in the 1990s) but I had trouble maneuvering it out of a tight space where it was parked with wall on three sides. Then it just disappeared. I decided to drive my Dad's old blue Dodge instead (in real life he had a Plymouth similar to this one). I found the keys and was ready to go but with trepidation about being late and unprepared. (Several features of the dream connect with the period around 1970-72 but it also reminds me of my current state of disorganization and semi-apathy about organizing my meaningful belongings and working on my many unfinished music projects)

Speaking of real life, I need to call the retina specialist in Boston whom Dr. Fivgas referred me to. Last week I was preoccupied with the election and today I found myself avoiding it. Why when I've gone to so much trouble and gone this far with treatment do I hesitate to take each next step. I found myself thinking "I'm done" in term of having completed the important work of my life. That doesn't have to be true but the self-doubt and fatalism are a force in my psyche.

Belief in ourselves

If we believed in ourselves, we could accomplish everything. But to believe in ourselves, we have to overcome a world that doesn't believe in us.

Election 2020: Me and Nate Silver

Tom,

I had the thought of writing to you about how I engage with election forecasting based on polling data. I thought (presumptuously) you might be interested in a dive into the way I utilized the fivethirtyeight.com election forecast this year. I trust Nate Silver/538 forecasts more than other options because they have an excellent track record and I like what I know about their methodology (not that I understand the math). I followed their blog on Election Night 2016 and knew several hours before the networks started calling it that Trump won. 

How I work with the forecast is not all that complicated and I tried to lay it out clearly. Of course, you will already know a lot of what I’m discussing and I wouldn't blame you for not wanting to wade through the discussion, but in any case, I found it helpful to explain what I do to myself. We often have complex habits that develop organically without a written plan. 

2020. Here’s the link to their final forecast. It was posted on Monday, Nov 2 and is their last word, written in stone (i.e., it won't change), allowing anyone to critique their work after the votes come in. 

538 uses all reputable polling data available from many different outfits. With those numbers, they create a mathematical model factoring in myriad demographic variables, historic partisan trends, the state of the economy, and various other factors to calculate odds on every state going red or blue (see forecast). These folks are serious data nerds! In their big mathematical model, they average these polls but weigh each one differently based on their assessment of the quality of the methods the various pollsters use. 

Quantifying and crunching all those complex variables by running 40,000 simulated elections where numbers vary under different scenarios such as high turnout, low turnout etc, 538 assigned Biden an 89% chance of winning the election. That is, in 89% of the simulations they ran, Biden won.Their results from the same simulations gave a Biden landslide a 30% chance, a Trump win 10% and an Electoral College 269-269 tie 1%. (A few days ago, a tie would have resulted had Georgia gone to Biden and all the other uncalled states, AZ, PA, NV, NC and Alaska, to Trump!) The remaining 59% covered outcomes ranging from a squeaker for Biden to a solid Biden win short of a blowout. None of these predictions was a certainty because there’s no such thing as certainty in the forecasting game, whether it’s elections, sports or the weather. The odds just give a sophisticated guess of what is likely to happen based on mathematical data. However, it's worth noting the actual result (from 295 to 306 EV, depending on AZ) will fall within that 59% range, that is, the range Silver predicted as most likely.

As you know, political pros use polls in Presidential campaigns to decide where to focus effort and allocate resources based on a strategy to get to 270 EV. We saw how the small set of states that weren’t called within 24 hours (except maybe Alaska) were all rated as close calls. Based on the polling each campaign did, those states were all targets of intensive efforts in the final days and weeks up to Election Day. The point is, the pros believe in their polling data and put their money on the line accordingly. Turnout for both parties was massive leading to long days of checking and counting the ballots; and, all of them were, in fact, close races with winning and losing hanging in the balance. 

How did my go-to operation (538) do on the Presidential election? They were correct on Biden because he won (as has become clear now). They correctly called every state that Trump held from 2016. They correctly called every state that stayed blue from 2016. They correctly called Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to flip from red to blue. They correctly called the districts in Maine and Nebraska that can go either way. They called Arizona and Georgia to flip red to blue- the outcome of those two is somewhat in doubt so we’ll see. They missed on two big ones- North Carolina and Florida but in both cases they had rated Biden only a “slight favorite.” 

In their final national forecast, which you can browse at the above address, you will see a graphic called the “snake chart” that shows all the states lined up in order of the 538 calculation of the probability of each one going red or blue. To fit it into a frame, the line of states twists around (sort of like a snake). At the extreme red end is Nebraska’s 3rd district followed by West Virginia and Wyoming. At the extreme blue end are Washington DC, Vermont, Hawaii and Massachusetts. These are easy calls that no respectable forecast would miss. You and I could make them every time if we knew how they've voted in the last 10 or so elections. 

In the middle of the “snake” are the states and districts that are toss-ups. They are rated blue or red but they are the most uncertain according to the forecast. In this range, the last 5 in blue are Arizona, Florida, NC, Maine District 2 and Georgia. The first 5 red states in this range are Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Montana and South Carolina. If you start at the blue end and add the Electoral Votes (EV) for each state in order of the 538 probability of a Biden win (highest to lowest), the snake chart shows Pennsylvania as the “tipping point” state, the one that puts Biden over the top, because adding it’s EV to the ones that came before gives Biden 270 or more, enough to win. 538 assigned an 85% probability of Biden winning PA. The states that come afterwards would give Biden extra EV beyond 270 if everything came out according to the forecast. (A final snake chart after all results are in ordering the states from largest margin of victory to smallest is used to define the "true" tipping point state.)

The reason Biden got such a high probability of winning (89%) is because he has a lot of states past the tipping point, meaning there were more different ways he could win in the simulations than Trump had (based on their estimations, of course). Interestingly, the snake chart shows exactly the way it has turned out- all the states on the chart from DC through PA voted blue and Biden won. So as far as the Presidential race went, that’s pretty impressive to me. As a fairly sophisticated student of the electoral map, if forced to guess I would have said Arizona blue (right), Florida blue (wrong), no clue on Maine 2 (wrong) and everything else red (i.e., wrong on GA). Iowa struck me as a possible upset red to blue (wrong). So, I was wrong on FL, NC, GA and IA. Along with Maine 2 left blank, I got 50% right, as compared to Silver getting 80% of the close calls right.

But why did I care about the predictions? I knew they weren’t certainties and I’m not running a campaign. I just wanted Biden to win because I think Trump is causing great harm to the country and the entire world. You read my “Democratic platitudes” (and I realize some people don’t see it that way.) Why not ignore all that and just sit back and wait for the election to be called?

The answer: I used them to prepare myself for what was likely to happen, to make sense of the vote as it was reported, and to discuss what’s going on in real time with my friends in the liberal support community called Owen’s Geo-Political Analysis Group and elsewhere. Since any number of scenarios are possible, I used an interactive map like this one (OK, I used this exact one but there are lots of them out there) that allows you to create different outcome scenarios to look at different ways Trump or Biden could win. Hours and hours of fun! 

What did I conclude? First, that if Biden got either Florida or Pennsylvania, he would almost certainly win as long as he also flipped Michigan and Wisconsin and held Minnesota. This looked promising. Second, I saw that even if Biden lost both PA and FL, he could still win by flipping Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin and holding the 2016 blue states (which include Nevada). Maybe Biden could pull an upset or two, as well (didn't happen). I wasn’t counting on Biden winning Georgia but I thought North Carolina and Arizona were likely. Getting one or more of those three would boost Biden’s different ways to win. That’s basically what I saw. I was pretty confident going into Tuesday evening.

As the results came in on Tuesday, it was quickly clear that Trump won Florida. Trump also went well ahead in Pennsylvania and other critical states on the strength of same day, in person voters, not a surprise since he urged his base to vote this way. He also made the false claim that voting by mail would result in massive fraud. Why did he do that? Because his polling pros told him this would make him appear to be winning the election. This would allow him to falsely claim victory so that if the well known "blue shift" caused by counting mail-in ballots occurred, he could say, "See, I'm being robbed!" which he did and continues to do as of this writing.

So by Tuesday evening it was clear the counting in PA would take a long time and Biden had a good shot of catching up and, hence, winning: Millions of same-day PA votes were still not reported from big urban districts and millions of mail-in ballots were going to be counted last. I went to bed at 1 am because the outcome was obviously going to take at least several days to determine. Before I did, I noted that an intelligent MAGA friend of mine had posted that it was incredible how Trump was going to win the election by huge margins, proving the dumbass prognosticators were totally wrong! Another knowledgeable friend and I responded to point out very politely that, because of the known character of the outstanding votes, it was quite possible, if not likely, the situation would get close and even reverse overnight The next morning, she and I had a private message from him saying we were right and he had deleted his post. We’re all still friends. 

Still on Tuesday, I looked at other states to consider Biden’s chances assuming PA didn’t flip to blue. As you know, over the course of the Tuesday and Wednesday, Michigan and Wisconsin went to Biden (as 538 predicted) and Minnesota held blue (as predicted). This reassured me that the 538 model was doing OK. Biden also built comfortable looking leads in AZ and Nevada, so his chances still looked good (recalling that Biden could make 270 with AZ, NV, MI, MN and WI without PA). I was a bit nervous but not discouraged by the overall picture, knowing further vote counting could change things. 

On Thursday, as PA started counting the mail-in ballots, Trump’s lead shrank every time a batch was reported. I tracked this on a handy chart in the online New York Times. Informed analysis of the mail-in ballots from multiple reputable news sources indicated they would favor Biden heavily and be sufficient to overcome Trump’s lead and build a solid lead for Biden. This kept on happening and at that point, I quit worrying completely because it was virtually certain Biden was going to win by carrying PA. (My close friends and wife were afraid to believe this when I told them.) 

The interesting question then became how many other states would Biden win and, above all else, would he carry our beloved state of Georgia? Even though 538 rated Biden a very slight favorite in Georgia (58% win probability) before the vote tallies started coming in, it was very hard for me to believe a Democrat could carry my home state. However, when I examined a list of Georgia counties on the New York Times webpage showing what percentage of votes were in and what % had gone to Biden or Trump for every GA county (a long list!), I could see that the outstanding votes were mostly from large, heavily pro-Biden counties such as Chatham and Clayton. To my surprise, it looked to me like Biden had a very good chance of catching Trump and taking the Peach State! This was confirmed by the analysts on 538 and other sources. I also noted that, since Biden was winning and Ossoff was losing, a lot of voters must have voted for both Perdue and either Biden or Jorgensen.

As of this moment, Biden is in the lead by a small margin of ~11,000 votes. That’s still too close for the news folks to call given the automatic recount that will be triggered. But Biden has it and I am impressed that 538 gave Biden a slight advantage that has panned out. AZ is also looking good for Biden here on Monday evening. So, you can see that for me, anticipating what’s going to happen is not simply a matter of seeing which candidate has the highest number for each state and waiting to see if that’s how it comes out. It’s a process of looking at multiple scenarios involving the states not all coming out like 538 predicted they would and following the unfolding vote count in light of substantive considerations such as which areas of a state have reported, how their votes are running, whether a state started counting early votes prior to Tuesday, what order a state is counting it’s different types of ballots and other factors.  The 538 election live blog kept me infomed of developments on a timely basis. Because I had studied the possibilities closely, I could make sense of things as they happened and maintain a rational hope for a Biden win throughout. That was very helpful in keeping my anxiety level in check and providing realistic hope to others who dreaded four more years of Trump. It's also kind of fun.

Now, how well do I think 538 did overall?

-On the Senate, not so good. The forecast said a 75% chance of Dems taking the Senate at least 50-50, which is very unlikely now unless they win both Georgia run offs or all the outstanding ballots in Alaska are for the Independent candidate. They correctly picked red to blue flips in Colorado and Arizona, missed on North Carolina and Maine but did correctly predict Peters to hold his seat in Michigan (whew). They also predicted Graham to hold his seat and McConnell to crush his opponent, which he did, and Jones to lose to a former Auburn football coach. I know someone who is pleased with these results and I can certainly live with them, given Trump being fired as President.  Of course, we still have the excitingly crazy Georgia Senate runoff to look forward to. Again, my emotions say the Dems will lose but we'll see.

 -On the House, a below average forecasting outing (the House will still be blue but not as blue). House races are harder to predict accurately because they involve smaller areas with less quality polling data available, so it is what it is. I wasn't concerned much about the individual races and didn't track any of them.

 -On the Presidential race? Good to very good. They correctly picked Biden to win and have only missed two calls so far. They probably hit on AZ and Georgia, too, which I would say is a very fine record. Not as good as when Silver picked the winner and every state correctly in 2008 and almost all in 2012. Much better than 2016 when he gave Hillary a 2/3 chance of winning and missed key states flipping to red. But the margins of Trump’s critical wins were very small and Silver warned his readers that a normal error that went Trump’s way could bring him the win. Because an election forecast is about probabilities, not certainties. People may say the 2020 Presidential forecast was less than stellar but it worked well for me. 

Regards,

Owen

Discombobulation Dream #496

 I awoke this morning (actually a few days ago now) from a variation on a familiar-themed anxiety dream. The latest installment started in an office suite where I had formerly practiced and still had an ownership stake. The given was I had retired but was visiting the office looking through some notes about a former patient. I went out into the hallway and encountered that patient who was accompanied by a friend. She engaged me in a pleasant conversation where it was evident we had good rapport. Either she or the friend said they hoped to consult me soon which didn't make sense but I didn't question it. I mentioned that I had only just been looking at something in my files she had written. 

In the next scene, I noticed someone who worked in the office had left partially eaten nachos in the sink in a kitchen area. I knew who did it (an Hispanic guy) and I was furious. I looked for the person to say, "This is unacceptable!" but couldn't find him. Later I was looking for my car which was the old black Pontiac Fiero I had in the early 1980s when I was working at Talbot Outpatient Center. (The office complex was reminiscent of Talbot but it seems I was an owner rather than a 1099 consultant.) I wandered around in the area which consisted of restaurants and strip malls. I couldn't find the car and the scene became confused- at one point it seemed like I was in a vehicle. The dream ended with me standing in a parking lot in underwear holding a change of clothes that included a sports jacket. I had lost the pants somewhere and, in my personal classic ending, was anxious and embarrassed about being seen in a public place improperly dressed! I have had numerous dreams over the years that culminated in finding myself in a public space with few or no clothes on expecting to be humiliated at any moment.

Dream October 28 5am

It's the end of the first meeting of a therapy group I'm leading with 4 women. It has gone well. I'm speaking to a member who has an alcohol abuse problem. Laura Taylor and MLK are observing. In parting I say to the lady, "I know you don't want to be an unhealthy drinker." I think this is a way to encourage her to address the problem. ML asks me about using a certain book re recovery but I haven't heard of it. Laura asks about "seeing me" for a counseling session. "You mean now?" I ask. Her affect is upbeat and I take it there's something she's wants to discuss and get my input. I think it's best to keep it informal and suggest going to dinner, as it's 6pm. She agrees enthusiastically. We take my car because she came with someone else, maybe Raiford. She picks a restaurant called "Yogurt something" which I agree to although I had it in mind to go to a nice place. Somehow we end up at her family's house where she lives with her parents and sister as a single person. I observe a dialogue between Laura and her mother about her wanting to make a change. Her life is good but she's bored. "I'm 31 years old!" At some point I'm concerned about getting in trouble for doing the group after my license is expired. I think about using a generic title that doesn't require one. Jenny is planning a trip to London, England. I'm thinking it will be my 3rd visit.

My thought process is a prominent aspect of this dream. It reflects my present life after retirement. What am I doing with myself, with knowledge, skills and understanding gained during my professional career? Laura represents relationship- how am I connecting with other people? Noteworthy coincidence: Another good and dear friend named Laura is undergoing surgery today for colon cancer. She messaged me her prognosis is excellent. Prayers for her well-being.

Realistic dream from this morning

I was with Robert Cook and Ginger Adams Suarez in a large room at a day program of some kind, perhaps it was a senior citizens center. It's not clear why we were there but it seems to have been voluntary. No authority figures were in evidence. We were practicing for a presentation of some kind where our part was to sing choruses of "Under the sea." Ginger had a little cassette recorder we were listening to. Ginger played the tape but the song wasn't the familiar version from Disney's film "The little mermaid" where it was a sung by Sebastian the Crab. There was a long intro with instrumental sections between verses. I was listening for choruses that never happened. I commented perhaps it was a recording of a live production. I was somewhat concerned about being unprepared for the presentation and being embarrassed by doing poorly. Then, Ginger informed us she had to leave early this day for an appointment. I questioned her about that and when she was vague about it I jokingly said, "So you have a date?" She said no with a bemused smirk. I thought about asking Robert if he wanted to go with me and see where I lived. A group of school age girls was sitting around long tables. One girl had a batch of pastries and coffee cakes. I looked at them and thought about asking her for one but didn't.

My thoughts about the dream:  It reflects my current life (being retired and free to do as I wish; engaging in activities that are more about staying engaged rather than producing significant results; feeling disorganized and aimless) and my concerns about aging. Robert and Ginger are in Owen's Geopolitical Analysis Group on Facebook. Robert is a nearly homeless artist. Ginger is my high school girlfriend who is still a good friend via social media. The connection between the three of us feels comfortable and natural. The setting is reminiscent of Baton Rouge Council on Aging where the BR Stamp Club used to meet. We are working on something that seems lacking in importance other than providing entertainment to an audience.  I'm concerned about the social impression we'll make if we are disorganized and awkward in front of an audience. It's not clear who that audience will be; but, my anxiety is about me rather than the specific audience.  

Here I am

This morning I'm back at Dr. Fivgas' office waiting to see him. On Wednesday I'll be in Naples, Florida for a presurgical appointment with Dr. William Smiddy ahead of procedure #6 on Thursday to remove scar tissue behind the artificial lens in my left eye that blocks light from reaching my retina and also prevents fluid from circulating in that eye, resulting in zero intraocular pressure. My hope is the procedure will restore fluid circulation and allow a determination of whether the retina can still produce useful vision. However, Dr. Smiddy intends to inject clear silicone oil again to prevent collapse of the eyeball. The oil will cause distortion in whatever vision the retina generates.Thus, in the best case scenario, I still won't have useful vision in my left eye. Why do it? I won't end up any worse visually and it might result in some degree of improvement. I don't want to give up before I've played all my cards.

Jane Kelley is flying down on Wednesday to accompany me during and after the procedure at my expense. It's very kind of Jane who has been spending time with us almosr every day since she came out of alcohol rehab recently. She's been very pleasant and helpful. She, Mary Lou and I watch BBC detective shows (Inspector  Lewis, Midsomer Murders and Vera) in the evenings. I print out cast lists from IMDB for them so we can keep the characters straight.

We go high

I think it's important not to mock Republicans who become infected due to disregarding the experts on COVID safety. My advice is ventilate in private (no pun intended) and go high on social media. Don't feed the toxic divisions in the body politic. 😷✌

Forced choice

 I've been off balance and indecisive for several days. Intellectually I believe I need to go for the sixth procedure on my left eye. However, I have felt reluctant to call Bascom-Palmer to request the surgery.  I intended to call on Monday but that morning I managed to yank my MacBook off a table in our bedroom with my headphones in such a manner that it fell onto the open screen and keyboard side. The screen cracked and that was it for the display. As I type this, it occurs to me that is analogous to being blind. I then spent an inordinate amount of time attempting to make the broken computer usable. I had some success hooking it up to an external monitor Mary Lou had on hand but the cost/benefit ratio was very poor. Finally, I took Mary Lou up on her offer of letting me use her spare MacBook upon which I'm typing this post. LastPass makes it possible for me to log in to all of my accounts and I'm back in business.

The past week or so I've been intensively practicing the old fiddle tune Whiskey before breakfast on my Gibson acoustical guitar. The first time I heard the song it was played by banjo virtuoso Roger Sprung in the early 1970s at the Galax (Virginia) Bluegrass Festival. I was fascinated by the rolling chord changes and the endless possibilities for creating melodic variations. My second year of grad school in Morgantown, West Virginia I moved into a house shared with two Behavior Analysis students, Ann something and Chip Brooks. 

My left eye

 I was able to have a telemedicine consultation on Tuesday with Dr. William Smiddy of Bascom-Palmer Eye Institute in Miami. The appointment focused on whether another surgery to remove the cyclitic membrane behind the artificial lens in my left eye is warranted and what the other options are. I learned from him that cyclitic membrane is composed of scar tissue from the 5 surgical procedures I've undergone since February 2019. Like the other doctors, he believes it unlikely I'll recover useful vision if the membrane is removed. However, the membrane could be removed and would be followed by injection of silicone oil The alternative is to inject silicone oil into the eye to create IOC. without removing the membrane. Of note, I never realized silicone oil is a clear fluid. Despite all the issues he brought up, Dr. Smiddy is willing to do the surgery which would require me to travel to Miami, of course.  

Initially, Dr. Smiddy believed my interest in surgery was for cosmetic preservation of the eyeball; but, I explained that my first goal was simply to prevent the eyeball from collapsing and hopefully restore IOC and a secondary goal was recover of vision. I decided to give myself 3 days to decide on whether to have the membrane removed. At this moment, I'm leaning in the direction of doing it. Two reasons: 1) After all the surgeries I've had, why give up without trying one more time. 2) My retina is attached and I can perceive objects at the left periphery when they are backlit. I believe it's possible I would have some ability to see if the scar tissue were removed.

What I said to Tom H

Tom: Congratulations Owen Scott III, you have uncovered yet another widely distributed news piece that will have absolutely no sway on the November elections.  Not a single vote will change because of this.  And it's not because it's not true.  It's because people don't care.  The people who vote for Biden are doing so because they hate Trump.  The people who vote for Trump are doing so because they hate the social discourse in America today.  The pandemic is such a crap shoot, nobody will vote based on how Trump handled it or whether he lied about it.

Me: You may be right about this news not changing votes although your statement about why people are voting either way is way oversimpfied and inaccurate. I'm voting for Biden because I believe critical issues of public health, the environment, the economy, national security, racism, corruption of government, the rule of law, wealth inequity and dishonest sowing of fear and division for political gain at the expense of "a more perfect Union" must be addressed in the near future or our system of government and way of life will be damaged irreparably. Biden offers hope for a return to rational leadership that could stave off the unfolding disaster. I certainly don't expect to change any minds by posting about Trump shamelessly causing 1000s of deaths by his cynical lies. The reason I did is that I would betray my values by remaining silent on matters of such extreme importance. I'm sure you believe I'm going off the deep end of alarmism, so you may want to unfollow me if you don't like me speaking out because I'm going to keep doing it until the election.

The verdict

After an extensive evaluation that included a look by Dr. Shyamanga Borooah, one of the retina specialists  at Shiley, and culminated in a scan with ultrasound biomicroscopy (UBM), Dr. Weinreb concluded there's an abnormal growth he described as a membrane that is blocking the structures that control the flow of fluid in that eye. It could be addressed with surgery but the prognosis for restoring vision would still be poor. It has been developing for some time, in Dr. Weinreb's opinion, and would have been difficult to detect without UBM. As Dr. Fivgas told me, the eye will collapse will if untreated. 

Dr. Weinreb strongly recommended I consult someone at Bascom-Palmer Eye Institute in Miami. Given that a difficult surgery is unlikely to restore useful vision, I asked him whether I should just have it replaced by a cosmetic eye. His reply: "That's a very good question you should ask a retina specialist."

My left eye (email to Lauren)

Hi, Lauren,

Keeping you posted on my eye condition, I'm flying to San Diego on Monday to consult a high level clinician/researcher I found. I don't want you to worry about this as I'm doing fine overall but I want to keep you informed. I've also shared this with Jenny and Maureen.

After the last procedure I had, a complication developed where the internal pressure in the eye dropped to zero. Apparently that's a rare problem. At present, I'm left with no useful vision in my left eye, just vague light and dark shapes. My right eye is good and I've been relying on it adequately to carry out normal functions since February 2019. 

My retina doctor in Baton Rouge offered very limited options and wasn't able to determine what caused the problem; so, I researched eye diagnostic technology on my own and found this doctor. I'm seeing him on Tuesday and returning home on Thursday. I decided to stay an extra day in case it was needed.

https://providers.ucsd.edu/details/11591/ophthalmology

He's very accomplished and rather nerdy (I watched some videos of him), my type of doctor. I emailed him and he replied right away. I think he will be able to tell me what's possible at this point and what advances in diagnosis and treatment are in development. 

I'm in a position to get the best treatment available so I figured I might as well go for it. I'll be ok no matter what the outcome is. My Baton Rouge specialist is supportive- he's done what he can. I may or may not find there are cutting edge developments in the field but I'll know I've explored the options.

Again, don't worry, be happy! I hope things are well. I'll let you know what Dr. Weinreb determines and recommends.

Dad

On Fri, Aug 28, 2020, 11:30 AM Mary L Kelley <mkelley@lsu.edu> wrote:

I’m so glad you reached out to Lauren.  It made me sad to read about your eye. I love you. ml

 

From: Owen Scott <therapycat@gmail.com>
Date: Friday, August 28, 2020 at 11:18 AM
To: Lauren Scott <astirya@gmail.com>
Cc: Virginia Scott <virginia.k.scott@gmail.com>, Maureen Stevens <maureenscottstevens@gmail.com>, Mary L Kelley <mkelley@lsu.edu>
Subject: The latest on my eye

 

Hi, Lauren,

 

Keeping you posted on my eye condition, I'm flying to San Diego on Monday to consult a high level clinician/researcher I found. I don't want you to worry about this as I'm doing fine overall but I want to keep you informed. I've also shared this with Jenny and Maureen.

After the last procedure I had, a complication developed where the internal pressure in the eye dropped to zero. Apparently that's a rare problem. At present, I'm left with no useful vision in my left eye, just vague light and dark shapes. My right eye is good and I've been relying on it adequately to carry out normal functions since February 2019. 

My retina doctor in Baton Rouge offered very limited options and wasn't able to determine what caused the problem; so, I researched eye diagnostic technology on my own and found this doctor. I'm seeing him on Tuesday and returning home on Thursday. I decided to stay an extra day in case it was needed.

https://providers.ucsd.edu/details/11591/ophthalmology

He's very accomplished and rather nerdy (I watched some videos of him), my type of doctor. I emailed him and he replied right away. I think he will be able to tell me what's possible at this point and what advances in diagnosis and treatment are in development. 

I'm in a position to get the best treatment available so I figured I might as well go for it. I'll be ok no matter what the outcome is. My Baton Rouge specialist is supportive- he's done what he can. I may or may not find there are cutting edge developments in the field but I'll know I've explored the options.

 

Again, don't worry, be happy! I hope things are well. I'll let you know what Dr. Weinreb determines and recommends.


Dad

 

On the road with the Zambo Flirts!

The 2nd time the Zambo Flirts had an out of town gig c. 1972, a young wannabe promoter got us into a club in Savannah. He thought we were going to be the next Rolling Stones which of course played into our rockstar fantasies. We played well to a small crowd and left the venue in high spirits. This became more literally true as Conner, David and I spent an hour getting drunker in our cheap hotel room. The inspiration struck us to drive to a Krispy Kreme donut shop we had passed on the main drag so we piled into Conner's Monte Carlo and I drove us to the place because I was the best at DWI (which I prided myself on). After munching some donuts, we headed back around 2am and on the way, I noticed a patrol car had gotten behind us. This made me a bit nervous so I started concentrating very hard on driving steadily and minding the speed limit. It seemed to be taking forever to reach the motel and I was becoming progressively more anxious, expecting to get pulled over at any moment and hauled off to the city jail. Finally, I couldn't stand it any longer. On an impulse, I signalled and made a right turn into what appeared to be an upscale subdivision. I had no idea what I was going to do next but to my supreme relief, the cops kept going straight and I was off the hook!

Q Anon

According to the mysterious "Q," Trump is in charge of the secret plan to round up the global conspiracy of child-eating billionaire Satan worshippers and cart them off to concentration camps for ultimate disposition, which would suggest he knows more than he's admitting... or that the whole thing is a ridiculous fantasy that's stringing a lot of gullible people along. But, hey, you be the judge. (Is anyone out there working on a graphic novel version and screenplay? It has definite commercial potential! 😉)

My parents and music

My Mom was 36 when I was born in 1952. She had a collection of LPs she played while doing housework when I was a kid- Tommy Dorsey, Glen Miller, Spike Jones, Dixieland, John Phillip Sousa marches and all kinds of eclectic stuff on compilation albums. She liked solid rock and roll and was good with my bands practicing downstairs at our house in Athens, GA. Thanks, Mom! My Dad, on the other hand, couldn't pat his foot in time with the beat. Nice try, Dad!

Yet another anxiety dream

The morning before last, I woke up early as I often do and after eating a bowl of cereal went back to bed. Mary Lou left to go to her tread class and I fell sleep. About 90 minutes later, I woke from a disturbing dream. I had been at an apartment in a building with my Mac book and seem to have been working on something with another person who also had a laptop computer. My old associate Michael Duttweiler was present along with some other people. I left to go elsewhere but realized I didn't have my Mac book. I went back to the apartment and the Macbook had disappeared. I was quite distressed and began to look frantically for my device. I suspected Michael had stolen it but I had no proof. I left and then wanted to return to the apartment but had difficulty finding where it was in the building (a frequent recurring theme in my dream life). I walked around the building several times and reentered, finding myself in other people's apartments, which increased my anxiety. I was never able to recover my computer and I woke up feeling distraught.

Call from Dr. Fivgas

The phone rang and it was Dr. Fivgas, my retina specialist. He was a bit apologetic about calling but I was glad to hear from him. He conferred with a senior colleague who is head of the retina department at Emory Medical School in Atlanta. From their discussion, nothing new emerged. There is no technology that can make a definitive determination of the cause of my loss of intraocular pressure in my left eye. The only option for propping up the structure is another injection of silicone oil. I'm less than thrilled about that idea. The only other step Dr. Fivgas offered was a steroid injection into the eye, literally a shot in the dark. I accepted this as the only thing short of another oil injection. I've had a shot in the eye and it wasn't so bad so I'll find out how my eye is doing from the routine assessment done each visit, get the shot and see what happens.

The latest recurring dream

 I remember two parts of a dream I had on Saturday after I went back to sleep in the morning. In the first part I was surprised and happy to see that Lauren Scott was visiting. Someone reminded me I had seen her the previous evening.  The second part was the recurring scene where I am with a parent or grandparent who is very old and barely hanging on to life. In this case, it was Grandmama and Grandpapa. Grandpapa was slumped down on a sofa, apparently asleep. I approached him and said "I'm proud to be a Scott." I didn't get a response and so I repeated it, "I'm proud to be a member of the Scott family!" I told him and I was feeling it sincerely. He picked up his left arm which seemed like a sign he was alive and conscious. However, I then noticed the move seemed mechanical as if a reflex rather than a volitional movement.

Thoughts about the dreams.  Lauren is the present of the Scott family. Grandmama and Grandpapa are the past.  Lauren is brilliant but I'm concerned about the survival of our genetic heritage. I love her unconditionally and delight in her wonderful qualities.  Maureen doesn't appear in the dream but her child is the future of the family.

Thoughts on whether the USA has failed as a system of government

US citizens on the extreme left and right believe the governmental system of the USA has failed. On the right the fear is the government will take away basic personal freedoms. On the left, the belief is the government is only serving the wealthy and will never address the problems of poor people, minorities, undocumented immigrants, and low paid workers.

While I share the concerns of the leftists, I think things are more complex than that. The human world has never achieved anything like an enlightened ideal state of peace, freedom, good will, justice  empowerment and safety. Societies always have competing social forces driven by caring and uncaring beliefs and agendas that play out in a tremendous  unfolding process no one is able to control or even predict reliably. Right now the USA has swung into a destructive, divisive period where wiser and more insightful people have lacked the power to prevent dangerous and destructive agendas from being implemented. I'm concerned for global civilization for reasons all of us know. The best thing I can think of to do is to to be a good influence in my little social network and hope for the best.

Questions for Dr. Fivgas

I'm concerned about damage that may have occurred due to having 5 procedures since 2.2019. The left side of my left eye is still tender since the last procedure. I'd like to develop a clear idea of the state of my eye and what steps are possible to address the functional deficits I'm experiencing. 

1) Am I correct in understanding that a significant part of my retina never detached? If so, why wouldn't that part process light normally? 

2) Is the fluid in my eye murky? Does that account for why I see as if through a frosted glass or murky water? 

3) If the intraocular fluid is murky, what is making it murky? Is there a definitive way to determine this?

4) If the intraocular fluid is murky, is there a way to replace it with clear liquid? 

5) If so, what are the risks associated with the procedure(s)?

 6) Is there a way to determine why the intraocular pressure is low?

What to believe about HCQ?

This article gets at the central question of epistemology- how do we determine what is true or likely to be true so we know what to believe? Neither of us has ever treated a COVID-19 patient. What do we rely on the judge whether to believe Dr. Fareed? We have his report that giving the HCQ cocktail early prevents COVID-19 patients from becoming severely ill. He says other doctors he's in touch with have gotten the same results but medical authorities like Fauci refuse to accept these results. 

Questions

1) How do we know Dr. Fareed's claims are completely true and accurate?

2) How does an expert in infectious diseases decide whether to believe Fareed?

3) Why isn't his approach getting widespread support?

Additionally, is The Desert Review a trustworthy news source?

I'm going to wait for you to answer these questions before addressing these points.

Owen

I'll give the short answer question 2. A randomized, placebo controlled clinical trial is the gold standard for showing the effectiveness of any treatment. Are there relevant studies. Yes.

I couldn't find a randomized controlled clinical study that found benefits for HCQ at any stage of treatment. Several randomized controlled studies found no signifiant benefit. But apparently there is no definitive study that is strong enough methodologically to settle the issue.  But the studies that claim there are benefits are so flawed methodologically that you can't draw any conclusions from them; yet, unqualified commentators (e.g., the President and his economic advisor Navarro) keep making claims for HCQ. If a randomized, controlled, double blind clinical trial comes out showing HCQ is effective, I will change my opinion on it. This article summarizes the issues and reasons not to believe HCQ is effective.  

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/16/new-covid-19-study-despite-flaws-adds-to-case-against-hydroxychloroquine/

(I looked for information about the Desert Review and couldn't find anything other that their web page that says they're an award winning independent local news agency. Nothing about the actual awards, no reviews from any media bias evaluating site, no wikipedia entry. I noted they have several articles presenting hcq treatment for covid in a positive light. Should I believe their coverage and conclude hcq is an effective treatment?

Footnote: The studies indicating HCQ isn't effective come from a number of different countries including the USA, Canada, the UK and Spain. Should I conclude there's an international conspiracy to discount HCQ even though it's a highly effective treatment for COVID-19?

Footnote 2. It's all about the methodology. That's what makes science science.

If you know of a methodologically sound study providing support for HCQ, please let me know right away.

This quote is from the published article (link below) by the Ford system about their favorable results with HCQ.  "In this multi-hospital assessment, when controlling for COVID-19 risk factors, treatment with hydroxychloroquine alone and in combination with azithromycin was associated with reduction in COVID-19 associated mortality. Prospective trials are needed to examine this impact."  The last sentence is about the need for randomized, controlled clinical trials to show whether they've got something or not.  Am I biased against HCQ? Only because of my review of the evidence in this controversy. As I said above, if good evidence comes out for HCQ, I'll modify my opinion.  

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext

Then, again, maybe there is an international conspiracy in the scientific community to keep people from getting effective treatment for COVID-19. Maybe the Deep State is involved. Maybe Q-Anon is right. Maybe our Universe is a computer simulation some advanced beings created for recreational purposes (as Elon Musk says he thinks). I can't disprove any of these possibilities.

Response to an advocate of Marxism n Owen's Geopolitical Analysis Facebook group

My final thoughts on this comment thread. Alex has raised critical issues about the track record of the USA and the need for very serious change in US and global society. Is the problem our political/economic system or is it rooted in human biopsychology? I think it's the latter, that the short-sighted survival instincts of our species (tribalism, self-interest) are the reason we haven't developed a wise, compassionate, just US and global society, despite our capacities for compassion, problem-solving and rational thinking and the interdependence of all people. I'm not convinced humanity will ever achieve one but I hope it happens, even if it doesn't emerge until long after I'm gone. I appreciate that Alex holds out hope and is passionate in his desire for it to happen. 

For me, the evolution of the biggest socialist experiments, the USSR and China, are not encouraging, as both developed into authoritarian police states (consider e.g., Stalin and Beria) that kept/keep people in line by force and terror. Individuals in the USA have considerably more freedom than in either of those, for better (free speech, free movement, free press) or worse (unlimited guns). The current Russian leader, a former KGB colonel and current ultra-successful international gangster, is a product of the Soviet police state culture. (I have to believe he holds very damning information over Trump's ugly head).

In the short-term, I believe defeating Trump in November is critical to staving off disaster, climate change being an obvious global danger with massive consequences among others, such as present and future pandemics and the resurgence of authoritarian nationalism around the world. The longer term picture is too murky for me to predict but I'm not confident our system (and humanity in general) is capable of solving our own much less the world's destructive trends. Our technologies (AI, nuclear weapons, greenhouse gas emissions) threaten our existence on multiple fronts. In any case, I don't think the idea of a socialist revolution in the USA to implement a different basis of government is realistic in the near future. I think a revolt from the Trump side by rank-and-file supporters based on propaganda driven delusional thinking if he loses in November is more likely than one from the socialist left based on Marxism. If that were to happen, there's no telling what Trump might try in his final months as a lame duck and the incoming Democratic administration might be faced with the prospect of using military force to keep the Union united. The Civil War is the biggest historic example but there have been a number of others that might be more similar. Of course, all that's speculative.

I'm not a true believer in any ideology. I'm focused on what I can do to be a positive influence in my own small world and I'm just hoping for the best. I have a saying "we don't know what we don't know." The above are my provisional opinions based on what I know at this point in time.

How my day started off

I got up at 5:55AM to have a bowl of cereal while Mary Lou got ready for her 7am Tread class. Checking Facebook, I saw an articulate, insightful post regarding the COVID-19 pandemic by my friend, Blair, who lives in Roswell, GA.  I gave it the heart reaction and moments later she texted me to say she thinks she has the virus. She definitely has something- sweats, chill, coughing, exhaustion. If it's not COVID-19, it's some kind of respiratory infection. Blair has a virtual doctor visit scheduled for this evening. She's scared and alone, afraid to tell her boyfriend. I was as supportive as I know how to be.

I needed more sleep so I went back to bed and had an elaborate dream. The first part I can recall took place in a trailer office that was parked on land "we" (my current family?) owned. The trailer had a connection to Raising Canes, perhaps they had allowed Maureen to keep it after she left for her new job. The office was narrow and Spartan, just a counter along one side and a seat or bench to sit on and a toilet that was simply a square opening in one corner like the shaft under a Porta-Pot. The opening was full of water and scrap paper, not disgusting or smelly. I thought we would have to pay for a waste truck to come empty it on a regular basis.

In a long second scene, I left this place carrying some kind of object. I can't recall exactly what it was but it was like a small mattress, a bit awkward but not too heavy. I was walking into an urban area and I decided I should return the object to where I left from. I had turned a corner so the place I left was at the opposite corner of the block. I was considering which route to take and I decided to try cutting through a building.

Inside I found it to be an upscale multi-use building with a number of doors to the outside. I went into a room set up like a small classroom where an expert with a beard in a suit was about to give a talk. He had the air of a smooth operator. The man passed a sign in sheet with first initials and last names to me which I took and entered my name O. Scott. I then slipped out the back as he began his talk. I was walking around looking for an exit, no longer carrying the object. I simply wanted to get out of the building so I could return to my base.  I went into a suite of rooms with an open design that turned out to be a psychiatric residential unit. An elderly lady indicated this was her room. She made a comment about being in Denver (which we weren't) and palm trees swaying in the wind, conveying to me she probably had dementia. An aide appeared and I left quickly still seeking an exit. I noted a closed store front with a sign that said APPAREL  I was checking out doors on the right side of the building that might lead to the street. One had an emergency light above it and looked as if it would make an alarm go off. I moved on to a big wooden door that opened onto a park-like grass lawn ending it a tall fence against a high embankment with no obvious way to exit the grounds back to the city. While I had a sense of being lost in the building and wanting to escape, I wasn't frightened, just mildly anxious and in problem-solving mode. For some reason, I didn't ask anyone to help me find the exit.

Final thoughts after reading the ending chapters of Laura's "Love Letters" manuscript

Laura,

I really should read a popular romance novel for comparison purposes; but, not having done that, I suspect the quality of your story is significantly better than most. Here's why: Writing a novel is an act of love. The inspiration to write is just a starting point. Creating a compelling story with complex, believable characters and realizing it in a long, coherent, fine-grained verbal narrative required a combination of intelligence, knowledge, psychological insight, imaginative vision, concentration, and persistence that very few people possess. The element of magic realism (Lillian speaking to Lauren in dreams and paranormal experiences) is one of the best features of the story both as a creative idea and its realization in prose. The incorporation of the actual letters is another brilliant accomplishment imo. A third impressive strength I've mentioned several times is your ability to describe the real-time thoughts and feelings of the characters in a wide variety of life situations. Your depiction of sexual encounters (and solo acts) is another major strength. That's a lot of impressive strengths.

Nothing about the explanatory debriefing you provided surprises me. It all makes sense and resonates with what I understood from reading the ms and discussing it in our email correspondence. I knew you already had written a sequel (!!!) meaning that the ending of Love Letters 1 is locked in. Any significant change would create a domino effect requiring you to re-imagine and rewrite the sequel.

It's interesting to think about how a tragic death for Ren would impact on Lauren and her relationship with Ben. Could she ever get over it? I wouldn't underestimate her strength and resiliency. Throughout the turbulent history of human civilization people have had to do this. Modern affluent US citizens are relatively spoiled in this regard, as you are certainly aware. My years of dealing with PTSD, addiction, and general human struggles have impacted or maybe skewed my perspective. You've shared that you've experienced sexual trauma so you have personal experience with coming to terms with all those terrible issues. I used to start by telling the person "Something bad happened to you that was not your fault. It may take you a long time to believe that but I know it and it's the truth." Something to that effect. And I repeated it frequently in the course of therapy. I would hope Lauren would come to the conclusion that Ren was a tragic victim of his own "issues" and she didn't have the power to save him. She would still cherish the positive impact he had on her life without which she couldn't have had her own LHEA. We have to accept not being in control of anything except our own efforts (which do make a difference) and forgive ourselves for not having the power to stop tragic things from happening and make everything work out as we believe it should. But that's not to argue that you should change the ending of the story in Love Letters 1. Maybe, to your credit, you care too much about Ren to kill him off.

So, the thing that needs the work is the language itself. You're well into addressing that and I know I've been helpful in the effort. Much of what you've written is already excellent (see above). It makes me feel very good to know that I'm the friend who came through on the commitment to assist. I didn't know what to expect when I asked if I could read your ms but when I began reading, it quickly became evident you were creating an impressive work of fiction. My criticisms are minor in relation to what you've already achieved and have been driven by my wish for you to bring out your best and have a shot at reaching your audience and leaving them wanting more. Let's go for it!

 Owen

Weighing priorities

At this point in my life, my financial and healthcare bases are covered and my only responsibilities, besides finishing my term on the Grand Jury, are being a good husband, father and friend. Everything else is optional. Setting immediate and longer term priorities is in order.

I'll state the various ones that come to mind in list form.

1) Music.
 -Producing reasonably good recordings of my original songs and covers.
 -Writing lyrics to music I've written.
 -Livestream performances.

2) Family archives
 -Organizing the photos, documents, paintings. books and whatnot
 -Developing and implementing a storage plan
 -Deciding what to dispose of by giving or throwing away

3) Stamp and postcard collections
 -Organize everything
 -Decide what to keep
 -Create a comprehensive catalog
 -Determine and document values
 -Decide how to dispose of unwanted items (sell on consignment?)

4) Double-take manuscript and documents
 -Revisit and edit for a final version (or not)

5) Good causes (Social justice, the environment, institutes of learning and science, the arts, friends)
 -decide who and what I want to support and in what ways

6) Other writing
 -Organizing my blog posts, Facebook notes and comments, various handwritten and digital notes, fragments etc.

7) Self-care (exercise, medication, diet)

8) What else? I'm sure I'll think of other things after I post this blog entry.

Post-op status report

I saw Dr. Fivgas on Friday and learned the bubble injected during my last procedure has dissolved completely.  This came as a surprise as my vision in the affected left eye is still severely impaired. However, he also determined the retina is attached. For that reason, I believe there is some chance I'll recover some useful vision. I may look into getting another opinion from a highly rated retina clinic if that proves feasible.

When writing about vision problems, it's difficult to avoid optical metaphors such as "we'll see" and "it isn't clear." That said, it isn't clear exactly what's wrong with my left eye in that the retina is attached according to Dr. Fivgas when he examined it last week. The fluid in that eye is cloudy apparently, possibly from blood that leaked into it after the last procedure. My eye still feels tender on the left side as it has ever since that operation. At present, I can perceive patches of light and dark corresponding to what's around me and vague images of objects on the periphery. A second issue is low intraocular pressure for unknown reasons. High pressure causes glaucoma but I'm not sure if low pressure causes damage or is just an indication that something in the structure isn't working as it should. So we'll see (hopefully, haha). At least, I'm not experiencing pain from it and my stoical attitude if readiness to accept any outcome is working in my favor.

Sermon on Black Lives Matter

Did BLM protests spread COVID-19?

1. The effects of infection by COVI-19 show up within two weeks. But I know many people made a decision to take the risk because they believed it was important to address the issue of unnecessary violence by police against black citizens. Although it's taken a long time for white citizens to appreciate the seriousness of the problem, a majority of US voters including me now agree (evidence to follow). It's not about getting rid of law enforcement agencies which is a ludicrous idea. It's about changing the widespread law enforcement culture that rationalizes criminal abuse of citizens as a means to maintain order. That's not an effective approach to gaining the trust and confidence of the people you're charged with serving and protecting. People with my view will be accused of supporting chaos and lawlessness, wanting to take everyone's guns, establish a Communist state like Venezuela etc which is ridiculous and sheer propaganda. We can have police forces that balance controlling crime with respecting the rights of the public, especially black and minority citizens. No rational person wants a breakdown of order but the law applies to law enforcement, too. 

2. It's difficult for the average white person to put him or herself into the shoes of black people and appreciate all the additional stressors they experience. It's not because white people are evil or lack compassion- it's because most of us live in a different world from the black people across town. If you read the scholarly history of the black experience since the Emancipation Proclamation, it's shocking and not just up until the Civil Right Act of 1964 was passed. I don't talk about this much on this page because either people already understand or they'll see me as a "typical liberal snowflake" and tune me out. But very few people have dealt with as much violence in a professional context as I have- I specialized in PTSD for over 30 years and if I haven't seen it all, I've seen most of it. The tragic George Floyd incident opened a window for many white people to see the harsh  national reality..I've seen it here in Baton Rouge. Will the surge of compassion last past a few more news cycles? I hope so. Will the destructive actions of a few foolish people committing violence and vandalism shift the narrative and take the steam out of the movement toward reforming police culture where it needs reform? I hope not.

3. Police officers serve an important and necessary role in society. They're not intrinsically bad and evil. They're not all racists. They're human beings who are members of their local law enforcement culture. If that culture teaches that it's ok to use excessive force to keep the streets under control, that's what they'll learn and they'll believe it's necessary and for the best. They'll have the support of many civilians who are afraid of crime and view black males via stereotypes.  When people protest against it, there will always be some irresponsible people who do stupid things that don't help the cause. The problems are entrenched in US society and will be difficult to change but the effort has to be made "in Order to form a more perfect Union."

Too much political news

Anyone who is in touch with reality and follows the news knows Donald Trump is corrupt, ignorant, incompetent, reckless, immature, and pathologically narcissistic. What does that say about the 40% of US voters still think he's doing a fine job?

It's quite obvious he has cost 10s of thousands of US lives by his failure to address the COVID-19 pandemic with any other goal than to get re-elected. His response to the public outcry about police violence against black citizens has been to threaten using the US military to stop the wave of protests still sweeping across the nation. Now, his AG, William Barr, has attempted to fire US Attorney Geoffrey Berman, who is investigating Trump's business practices, Rudy Giuliani's shenanigans, and  other cases Trump would like to make disappear, by a press release saying Berman was stepping down. Upon learning this, Berman stated boldly he was doing no such thing and would not leave office until his replacement was approved by the US Senate, in accordance with the law. Apparently, any effort to fire Berman will be resolved in Federal court and will take months to litigate,  Then, there's the MAGA rally in Tulsa today that meets the CDC criteria for maximum riskiness.

It appears a significant majority of voters have grown weary of Trump who, by all these actions is sinking his own chances to be re-elected, thank God.

Points and lines

I recall a defining moment of my life when I sat in my desk at school watching and listening as the teacher presented the basics of geometry. The idea of a line composed of infinite points consisting of nothing but a location intrigued and fascinated me. I contemplated for some time how this made intuitive sense and yet was incomprehensible until I looked up and realized the lesson had kept moving and left me behind. To this day I don't think I've ever caught up. In a meaningful way I'm still sitting in my desk trying to get my mind around these ideas.

Experts

Not all "experts" are created equal. A trustworthy expert has credentials and belongs to an organized scientific discipline whose members scrutinize one another's research and public statement's and hold one another accountable. An authentic expert holds up under fact-checking.

Knowledge and trust

Most of what we know depends on trusting our sources of information. If there's no process of fact-checking and accountability, we're vulnerable to being manipulated into believing falsehoods by unscrupulous actors.

Collecting my thoughts

I had the idea yesterday to go through all the posts in this blog and copy them into a set of documents organizing them by theme or subject.

Reflecting on the damaging effects of fake news

Sad to say, lots of money is being made by pushing lies and misinformation to people who are hooked on having their buttons pushed.

Feedback on Laura's Love Letters

Hi, Laura, I hope things are well.  Good luck on your rendezvous with the oral surgeon.

As I'm sure you can tell, I'm taking your ms seriously. Having gotten through almost half, it seems like a good time to collect my thoughts and give you some impressions. The unusual way I'm reading, editing as I go, is something I've never done with a long, unfamiliar manuscript. It's like an exercise program for my brain and that's a good thing. I certainly wouldn't be doing it if I didn't feel your work is worth the effort.

Overview: I think Love Letters has potential to find a publisher and reach an audience out there. You've created an intriguing and complicated, multigenerational romantic story and laid it out quite effectively which already has taken a massive effort on your part. The plot unfolds with a sense of inexorable destiny, steadily building dramatic interest and suspense that's lightened by the foibles of the characters. I'm particularly wondering about the role Ren will play in the outcome, a good indication of reader engagement. The personalities of your characters are developed capably so they seem real and individual. The most important characters, Lauren and Ben, are believably within the normal range of American society so that they will (I think) appeal to a wide segment of your target audience of what I presume is mostly female readers. The paranormal element of dreams and voices that transcend time/space boundaries and work to move the plot forward is written very well and, again, should appeal to many contemporary readers. To summarize, your draft is solid in critical areas, at least to this reader.

As of this moment, my opinion is that the keys to a successful reception (story reference intentional) are the quality of the writing itself and the appeal of the main characters. Writing quality is whereI've focused my attention and the editorial work I've done surely has conveyed to you how I think the current draft can metamorphosize from caterpillar to butterfly, in short, by a process of painstakingly scrutinizing and refining every sentence until each one flows with as much lyrical impact as possible. At least that's the ideal. I will be expecting a brief pat on the back in the Acknowledgements when it comes out in hardback.

Chapter 23 is a critical juncture in the story. I wrote some questions about the plot that came up for me in comments on the attached document. The most important one (and the only one I'd like you to clarify for me) is what Ben meant when he said he could lose his business toward the end of Chapter 23. Probably my narrow focus on the trees has caused me to lose sight of the forest a little. Some issues I pointed out in comments include; 1) whether you want the omniscient narrator's speech to incorporate southern idioms and 2) your tendency to repeat certain words in close succession as is characteristic of a raw draft. 

The most important substantive concern I have right now is Ben's likeability. Several times when he's pouring on the charm with the ladies he has struck me as either trying too hard or fake. I pointed these out in comments. That may be just me or it could be you're intentionally writing his character that way. Real human beings have character flaws as do well-conceived fictional characters. I'm assuming you want the reader to like both Lauren and Ben and to wish for their romantic relationship to succeed. His insecurities about Lauren and his falling into a trap of deceiving her are realistic and compelling. Thinking out loud, trying too hard isn't a bad thing, if in fact I'm not just overanalyzing here. 

Trying to put my finger on my concerns about the Ben, I think I'd like him better if he toned down his efforts at charm one notch. This is just one person's perception halfway through a long story so my reaction to Ben is merely a data point, an FYI. I don't want you to say anything to me about it before I finish the entire ms. I have no concerns at all about Lauren- kudos to the author for creating her. Ren, too.

I think that covers everything I have. Anything else will be in the comments within the chapters I'm attaching.  If you'll explain to me about Ben possibly losing his business, I'll get back to the manuscript and carry on. Of course, I'll be glad to hear and discuss anything else you may want to say. I'm excited about the prospects for Love Letters to succeed artistically and to achieve your personal goals in writing it. 

Yours truly,

Owen

Better this way (title of a song I wrote)

We're often tempted, when we learn something about the difficult situation of a friend or family member, to toss out simple advice about what the person should do. Any serious student of human psychology and behavior learns that telling someone what to do to solve a complicated tangle of problems is usually, for several reasons, not a good idea. For one thing, the person offering the answers doesn't have to live with their unintended consequences. Even someone who, like me, has devoted long years of my life to understanding and helping people comes to accept that many times all we can do is care and affirm that we believe in the person, knowing he or she can and will find their path.

Five hundred and sixty-six posts

Including this one, that's how many posts are in this blog. I suppose I'm achieving my goal of leaving a record of my thoughts and activities for anyone who is interested. I reviewed a few of them just now and felt fairly satisfied with them. I still like my concept of Qualitative Attachment to Identity (QAI). Perhaps I'll return to and write more about it one of these days. Or not.

Eye surgery #5

I went in at 6am this morning to undergo the fifth procedure on my left eye since I was diagnosed with detached retina in January 2019. In the first procedure, Dr. George Fivgas cleared scar tissue, reattached the retina and injected silicone oil into the eyeball to help keep the retina in place during initial healing. The second procedure was a lens replacement by Dr. Ehrlich. The third time was to remove the silicone oil and replace it with a gas bubble that would dissolve on its own after 8-12 weeks. The retina detached during this one and had to be cleaned up and reattached again. At the end of the 12 weeks, the bubble dissolved and the retina detached once again. Procedure 4 was a redo of this first surgery and the one today was a redo of surgery #2.  The hope is that it will be different this time- the gas bubble will dissolve and the retina will remain attached. Once more, I am under instructions to keep my face pointed toward the floor so the gas bubble will hold the retina to the back of my eyeball where it belongs.  Thus, I have been sitting in the massage chair we purchased for the first surgery with my face pointed down. It's a bit of a nuisance but I'm doing it.

Recording myself performing my original songs on video

Getting a strong video recording of a song with my methodology isn't a simple matter. Besides creating a satisfactory backup track (several days of recording work minimum), I have to set up the amp, PA, vocal processor, my Macbook, and a camera (currently my Android Galaxy S8+ smartphone), choose a guitar, set the tone and effects on the guitar and amp, get the lighting adjusted satisfactorily (check out the harsh and unflattering light produced by a bright light right over my head in some of my recent music posts), make any number of trial videos starting and stopping the recording myself for each one, check each take for lighting and sound, make adjustments of the guitar, the amp, the backing track and the lighting until I'm happy with them, and record a final performance version with balanced sound and few or no mistakes. When I have a satisfactory video, I then edit it to remove the extraneous footage before and after the song. All of this single-handedly. I spent several hours today working on a do over of this old song of mine I recently posted on IGTV.  The one currently posted is just ok- it falls short of realizing what I know the song can be. This take started well but still had a few fatal flaws. Perhaps the next take will be the one. 😎🎸🎶👌

Sunday service at First United Methodist Church

Many years have passed since we attended church at FUMC of Baton Rouge. We went faithfully when our children were young and I taught the Wesley Fellowship Sunday school class on a number of occasions. This Mother's Day morning, as I was making the bed and Mary Lou was out pressure washing the bricks of the back patio, the televised service from FUMC happened to come on the TV that was still on is our bedroom from watching CBS Sunday Morning earlier. We used to watch that show regularly, too. I listened to the sermon by the current minister and stayed tuned in through the communion service at the end of the broadcast. Reflecting on what I heard, my thought was I am thinking and living in accordance with the teachings of Jesus as I've learned them over many years of serious study. The words of Jesus spoken by the minister resonated with my understanding and, sad to say, clashed with what I understand of the practice of many Christians today. I was struck by this passage: "The path to life is narrow and few find it."

Updated predictions of US and 3 state deaths

Today (May 5) MIT-Sloan is predicting 113,214 total US COVID-19 deaths on June 1. IMHE changed its forecast drastically yesterday and now predicts 112,073 total US deaths on June 1. The predictions are nearly identical.

For Georgia, IMHE is now predicting 2914 deaths by June 1
For Georgia, MIT-S is now predicting 1515 deaths by June 1

For Florida, IMHE is now predicting 2504 deaths by June 1
For Florida, MIT-S is now predicting 2025 deaths by June 1


For Louisiana, IMHE is now predicting 2731 deaths by June 1
For Louisiana, MIT-S is now predicting 2238 deaths by June 1

Why MIT-S is so optimistic about Georgia I don't know. I do note MIT-S is now more optimistic than IMHE  on all four predictions.

The story of Midnight on Neptune

A song of mine that challenges my limited ability as a vocalist is Midnight on Neptune, a story about the first human space travelers to reach the cold, distant inhospitable 8th planet of our solar system. I'm not much of a singer but who else is there besides me to sing the songs I write? So, as I approach my 68th birthday I'm still striving to learn and improve as a singer. (I know- I should line up a good voice teacher. I actually contacted one not long ago but didn't hear back.)

On September 6, 2014, I created a Garageband project to record some chord changes and melodic ideas I had come up with through the "fooling around on my guitar" method that has produced most of the songs I've written over the years. I have any number of such rudimentary projects saved on various electronic media. I gave the track the whimsical name Midnight on Neptune, following another habit, giving a new song project a nonsensical name that it carries until such time as I develop a vocal melody and write lyrics. At that point, I change the name to something reflect the theme of the new song.

In this case, I left the track with just the rough sketch of a song and forgot about it for some four and a half years. In February of 2019, I revisited a number of my unfinished recording projects and took note of this one. As I found it, the pretty chord changes of Midnight on Neptune were realized via a relaxed folk-rock throwback drum loop, bass guitar, and three guitar tracks going for a bell-like sound texture reminiscent of the Byrds. Clearly, considerable work was needed to flesh out the musical concept.

As I considered working with this skeleton of a song, the inspiration struck me to write lyrics to go with the title. The first line I wrote was "It's midnight on Neptune and we're here all alone." The rest of the song followed.

Summary to date of my COVID-19 modeling study (Facebook comment)

I'm conducting a small study of how well the highly regarded MIT-Sloan model predicts COVID-19 deaths in 3 states, Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana. As you are aware, some people on the right argue that the prominent epidemiological models are not trustworthy because they greatly exaggerated the threat from the pandemic. This false argument is based on the fact that under the worst case scenario (that is, if no steps were taken nationally to flatten the curve), the models predictions were in the range of 200,000 plus deaths by this August.

As of me writing this comment, the predictions of all the prominent models have been adjusted down precisely because most states implemented shelter at home orders and the rest implemented at least some restrictions on their citizens. People who wish to discount the threat of COVID-19 conveniently ignore the fact that the models are adjusted continuously as things evolve, in particular depending on what steps are in place to contain the spread of infections. So, on April 16 I recorded the MIT-Sloan projections for the total number of deaths each state would have on May 1. They were: Georgia (913), Florida (1271), Louisiana (2281). Today (April 30), the official total deaths for each state (which are almost certainly undercounts according to the experts) are Georgia (1107), Florida (1268), Louisiana (1862).

Georgia has already exceeded the prediction by 21.2%. Florida is up to 99.7% of the predicted deaths on May 1 with 2 days left. Louisiana deaths are currently 81.6% of the MIT-Sloan prediction for May 1. Florida, which is taking steps to suppress the official tally of deaths from COVID-19 (see article below), will surpass the prediction by May 1. Only Louisiana will have fewer total deaths by May 1 than the model predicted 2 weeks ago. Why? Because Louisiana has implemented the strictest restrictions and is keeping most of them in place. Georgia and Florida have relaxed their restrictions and consequently more people are dying there. If you look at the current MIT-Sloan predictions for these 3 states moving forward to August, you'll see they have been adjusted up for Georgia and Florida and down for Louisiana.

I conclude here than this model did not exaggerate its predictions for these 3 states. It underestimated deaths in Georgia and Florida. The moral? Be like Louisiana. Don't be like Georgia and Florida.