Saturday, August 1, 2020

What to believe about HCQ?

This article gets at the central question of epistemology- how do we determine what is true or likely to be true so we know what to believe? Neither of us has ever treated a COVID-19 patient. What do we rely on the judge whether to believe Dr. Fareed? We have his report that giving the HCQ cocktail early prevents COVID-19 patients from becoming severely ill. He says other doctors he's in touch with have gotten the same results but medical authorities like Fauci refuse to accept these results. 

Questions

1) How do we know Dr. Fareed's claims are completely true and accurate?

2) How does an expert in infectious diseases decide whether to believe Fareed?

3) Why isn't his approach getting widespread support?

Additionally, is The Desert Review a trustworthy news source?

I'm going to wait for you to answer these questions before addressing these points.

Owen

I'll give the short answer question 2. A randomized, placebo controlled clinical trial is the gold standard for showing the effectiveness of any treatment. Are there relevant studies. Yes.

I couldn't find a randomized controlled clinical study that found benefits for HCQ at any stage of treatment. Several randomized controlled studies found no signifiant benefit. But apparently there is no definitive study that is strong enough methodologically to settle the issue.  But the studies that claim there are benefits are so flawed methodologically that you can't draw any conclusions from them; yet, unqualified commentators (e.g., the President and his economic advisor Navarro) keep making claims for HCQ. If a randomized, controlled, double blind clinical trial comes out showing HCQ is effective, I will change my opinion on it. This article summarizes the issues and reasons not to believe HCQ is effective.  

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/16/new-covid-19-study-despite-flaws-adds-to-case-against-hydroxychloroquine/


(I looked for information about the Desert Review and couldn't find anything other that their web page that says they're an award winning independent local news agency. Nothing about the actual awards, no reviews from any media bias evaluating site, no wikipedia entry. I noted they have several articles presenting hcq treatment for covid in a positive light. Should I believe their coverage and conclude hcq is an effective treatment?

Footnote: The studies indicating HCQ isn't effective come from a number of different countries including the USA, Canada, the UK and Spain. Should I conclude there's an international conspiracy to discount HCQ even though it's a highly effective treatment for COVID-19?

Footnote 2. It's all about the methodology. That's what makes science science.

If you know of a methodologically sound study providing support for HCQ, please let me know right away.
This quote is from the published article (link below) by the Ford system about their favorable results with HCQ.  "In this multi-hospital assessment, when controlling for COVID-19 risk factors, treatment with hydroxychloroquine alone and in combination with azithromycin was associated with reduction in COVID-19 associated mortality. Prospective trials are needed to examine this impact."  The last sentence is about the need for randomized, controlled clinical trials to show whether they've got something or not.  Am I biased against HCQ? Only because of my review of the evidence in this controversy. As I said above, if good evidence comes out for HCQ, I'll modify my opinion.  

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext

Then, again, maybe there is an international conspiracy in the scientific community to keep people from getting effective treatment for COVID-19. Maybe the Deep State is involved. Maybe Q-Anon is right. Maybe our Universe is a computer simulation some advanced beings created for recreational purposes (as Elon Musk says he thinks). I can't disprove any of these possibilities.



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